《新视角》杂志总第78期出版

各位读者朋友：

　　《新视角》杂志总第78期（2017年10月）已经出版，部分文章将在钝角网发布，以飨读者。

　　附：《新视角》杂志总第78期中英文目录和摘要

　　·观察·

　　在日学者谈中日关系、日本现况　　 9

　　Alexandre Sheldon-Duplaix（法国）　跨越周边海域：中国会成为一个全球“海洋强国”吗　　 28

　　欧盟安全问题研究所　中国的未来：展望2025年（节选）　　 46

　　荣剑　朝鲜拥核下的东亚再平衡　　 86

　　Diva Patang Wardak（英国）　为什么国家安全局重要：9·11后这一阿富汗情报机构的出现　　 94

　　·智慧·

　　希加布季诺夫·里纳特（乌兹别克斯坦）　20世纪初中亚的政治极端主义——殖民背景下的恐怖主义活动情况　　 108

　　倪章荣　一个伫立在法理之上的国家——美利坚合众国的建立及其政治格局的形成　　 120

　　林纯洁　从普世帝国到民族国家：奥地利纹章中的政治理念与权力符号　　 132

　　来信讨论

　　吴戈　从“杀手锏”战略看中国对军事上战胜美国之道的研究　　 142

　　朱正　越飞的使命　　 153

　　Content of Issue 78 of the Magazine Leaders

　　Observation

　　9 Interview with Japan-based Scholars about Sino-Japanese Relation and Contemporary Japan

　　28 Beyond the China Seas: Will China Become a Global “Sea Power”?

　　46 Chinese Futures: Horizon 2025

　　86 Rebalancing of East Asia in the Context of North Korea Acquiring Nuclear Capability

　　94 Why the NDS Matters: The Emergence of the Afghan Intelligence Agency after 9/11

　　Wisdom

　　108 Political Extremism in Turkestan at the Beginning of the 20th Century

　　120 A Country Founded on Legal Principles

　　132 From Universal Empire to Nation-state: Political Ideas and Power Symbols in Austrian Emblems

　　Letters

　　142 China’s Study on Military Approach to Overcome United States: From the Perspective of “Finisher” Strategy

　　153 The Mission of Adolf Abramovich Joffe

　　Summary of Issue 78 of the Magazine Leaders

　　Beyond the China Seas: Will China Become a Global “Sea Power”?

　　China’s 2010 White Book emphasised both the defensive and deterrent role of the “offshore defense strategy” beyond the first island chain and referred to operations in distant waters: “In line with the requirements of offshore defense strategy, the PLA Navy (PLAN) endeavors to accelerate the modernization of its integrated combat forces, enhances its capabilities in strategic deterrence and counterattack, and develops its capabilities in conducting operations in distant waters and in countering non-traditional security threats.” The paper refers to “new method of logistic supports for sustaining long-time maritime missions” and “on drills in distant waters” for “missions other than war.” China’s 2015 White Paper slightly changes the wording to incorporate “open seas protection”.

　　Chinese Futures: Horizon 2025

　　Admittedly, the type of regional order that will emerge in the Asia-Pacific will depend on a number of variables that are beyond China’s control. These include, in particular, the US’s ability and willingness to uphold its regional commitments, as well as other Asian countries’ response to China’s behaviour. Additionally, Japan’s and India’s regional positioning, ASEAN’s ability to maintain cohesion, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula all factor into this equation. These external variables will prove critical in determining whether the future regional environment will be confrontational or cooperative – and what China’s position in it will be. For the decade ahead, mindful of its own vulnerabilities, the PRC will seek to lay the groundwork for a post-American regional order, inclusive of China’s concerns and leadership aspirations. Whether this will be a step towards future Chinese hegemony remains uncertain.

　　Why the NDS Matters: The Emergence of the Afghan Intelligence Agency after 9/11

　　Immediately after the United States drawdown at the end of 2014, the National Directorate of Security (NDS) faced numerous challenges in tackling certain issues, since the Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence trained and funded the Taliban on its soil and continues to provide military and financial support to the Taliban and other terrorist groups carrying out attacks against the Afghan Security Forces across the country. The NDS continues to suffer from key intelligence capabilities, especially in gathering intelligence information from remote areas in order to prevent Pakistan’s interference in Afghanistan affairs. The failure of major powers to come to the aid of Afghanistan and strengthen its intelligence agency not only created more extremism, radicalisation, and terrorism but also created insecurity and instability. This article argues that the reform of the intelligence agencies is imperative, and the depoliticisation of the intelligence process is as much an element of national reconciliation as consolidation of power.

各位读者朋友：

　　《新视角》杂志总第78期（2017年10月）已经出版，部分文章将在钝角网发布，以飨读者。

　　附：《新视角》杂志总第78期中英文目录和摘要

　　·观察·

　　在日学者谈中日关系、日本现况　　 9

　　Alexandre Sheldon-Duplaix（法国）　跨越周边海域：中国会成为一个全球“海洋强国”吗　　 28

　　欧盟安全问题研究所　中国的未来：展望2025年（节选）　　 46

　　荣剑　朝鲜拥核下的东亚再平衡　　 86

　　Diva Patang Wardak（英国）　为什么国家安全局重要：9·11后这一阿富汗情报机构的出现　　 94

　　·智慧·

　　希加布季诺夫·里纳特（乌兹别克斯坦）　20世纪初中亚的政治极端主义——殖民背景下的恐怖主义活动情况　　 108

　　倪章荣　一个伫立在法理之上的国家——美利坚合众国的建立及其政治格局的形成　　 120

　　林纯洁　从普世帝国到民族国家：奥地利纹章中的政治理念与权力符号　　 132

　　来信讨论

　　吴戈　从“杀手锏”战略看中国对军事上战胜美国之道的研究　　 142

　　朱正　越飞的使命　　 153

　　Content of Issue 78 of the Magazine Leaders

　　Observation

　　9 Interview with Japan-based Scholars about Sino-Japanese Relation and Contemporary Japan

　　28 Beyond the China Seas: Will China Become a Global “Sea Power”?

　　46 Chinese Futures: Horizon 2025

　　86 Rebalancing of East Asia in the Context of North Korea Acquiring Nuclear Capability

　　94 Why the NDS Matters: The Emergence of the Afghan Intelligence Agency after 9/11

　　Wisdom

　　108 Political Extremism in Turkestan at the Beginning of the 20th Century

　　120 A Country Founded on Legal Principles

　　132 From Universal Empire to Nation-state: Political Ideas and Power Symbols in Austrian Emblems

　　Letters

　　142 China’s Study on Military Approach to Overcome United States: From the Perspective of “Finisher” Strategy

　　153 The Mission of Adolf Abramovich Joffe

　　Summary of Issue 78 of the Magazine Leaders

　　Beyond the China Seas: Will China Become a Global “Sea Power”?

　　China’s 2010 White Book emphasised both the defensive and deterrent role of the “offshore defense strategy” beyond the first island chain and referred to operations in distant waters: “In line with the requirements of offshore defense strategy, the PLA Navy (PLAN) endeavors to accelerate the modernization of its integrated combat forces, enhances its capabilities in strategic deterrence and counterattack, and develops its capabilities in conducting operations in distant waters and in countering non-traditional security threats.” The paper refers to “new method of logistic supports for sustaining long-time maritime missions” and “on drills in distant waters” for “missions other than war.” China’s 2015 White Paper slightly changes the wording to incorporate “open seas protection”.

　　Chinese Futures: Horizon 2025

　　Admittedly, the type of regional order that will emerge in the Asia-Pacific will depend on a number of variables that are beyond China’s control. These include, in particular, the US’s ability and willingness to uphold its regional commitments, as well as other Asian countries’ response to China’s behaviour. Additionally, Japan’s and India’s regional positioning, ASEAN’s ability to maintain cohesion, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula all factor into this equation. These external variables will prove critical in determining whether the future regional environment will be confrontational or cooperative – and what China’s position in it will be. For the decade ahead, mindful of its own vulnerabilities, the PRC will seek to lay the groundwork for a post-American regional order, inclusive of China’s concerns and leadership aspirations. Whether this will be a step towards future Chinese hegemony remains uncertain.

　　Why the NDS Matters: The Emergence of the Afghan Intelligence Agency after 9/11

　　Immediately after the United States drawdown at the end of 2014, the National Directorate of Security (NDS) faced numerous challenges in tackling certain issues, since the Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence trained and funded the Taliban on its soil and continues to provide military and financial support to the Taliban and other terrorist groups carrying out attacks against the Afghan Security Forces across the country. The NDS continues to suffer from key intelligence capabilities, especially in gathering intelligence information from remote areas in order to prevent Pakistan’s interference in Afghanistan affairs. The failure of major powers to come to the aid of Afghanistan and strengthen its intelligence agency not only created more extremism, radicalisation, and terrorism but also created insecurity and instability. This article argues that the reform of the intelligence agencies is imperative, and the depoliticisation of the intelligence process is as much an element of national reconciliation as consolidation of power.